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The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has released its latest forecast, and the economic outlook is grim.

“The Hawaii outlook has deteriorated since the time of our last report,” the report states. “This is primarily due to actual and threatened U.S. tariff hikes that are much larger than anticipated, as well as adverse effects on increased federal policy uncertainty around trade, immigration, spending and tax cuts, and other areas.”

UHERO believes the local economy will fall into a mild recession by the end of the year. 

In a video discussing the report’s findings, UHERO assistant professor Steven Bond-Smith said, “GDP growth will slow in both the U.S. and Hawaii, but with Hawaii’s already slow growth rate, the slowdown tips us into a recession.”

Bond-Smith goes on to say tourism is among the sectors under stress as “uncertainty remains elevated.”

According to the report, “the most damaging effect on Hawaii of President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies may well be to the visitor industry. This will be felt through several channels: the adverse impact of high tariffs on major source country economies, the discouraging effects of uncertain international visitor regulations and enforcement and avoidance by travelers who are upset by these and other administration policies.”

So far this year, the Japan market is still sluggish. Canadian visitors to the U.S. have dropped significantly. With that said, Hawaii started the year positively, with the statewide visitor census up 2% in the first two months of the year compared to last year.

However, UHERO calls this the “calm before the storm,” and it has reduced its tourism outlook for 2025-2026 significantly.

“We now expect arrivals to fall 4% over the next two years, a drop of 400,000 visitors,” the report said. 

“Over 2025-2027 the pace of decline will be the biggest on the international front, with Japanese arrivals falling by more than 6% this year, before stabilizing in 2026. … U.S. arrivals will decline 3% by 2026, with downside risk should a recession develop. Total visitor arrivals will not reclaim their 2024 level until 2028.”

Do you think of yourself as a salesperson?

Not enough travel advisors do, according to Byrd Bergeron, founder of the Travel Byrds.

“Travel agents don’t think of themselves in the sales space,” Bergeron said. “So what they do a lot of times is they focus on their customer service, and they’re obsessed with the customer service.”

What they’re not thinking about are things like their sales pipeline, how long it takes to close a lead, keeping every lead logged in a CRM or analyzing leads that were lost, Bergeron said. But thinking about things like that can better a business and increase revenue.

Bergeron was speaking on the latest episode of the “Trade Secrets” podcast, which is all about sales strategies. Bergeron was a guest alongside Steven Gould of Goulds Travel, Luxera Travel and the Travel Advisor Resource Center.

She offered an example of thinking more strategically about a travel agency as a business: She might go into her CRM, or customer relationship management system, and look at what each of her 11 advisors are up to. Perhaps there’s a trend of an advisor losing leads because their potential clients aren’t paying Travel Byrds’ research and design fee.

I would say maybe we need to work on your pitch a little bit more,” she said. “Maybe we need to build your value.”

Or, if clients are “ghosting” an advisor, she might work with them on their phone skills, she said.

It’s about “giving yourself the space to have data around sales, not just spending all the time working on customer service,” she said.

In fact, Bergeron herself spends very little time on customer service after she’s made a booking. She has outsourced that to virtual assistants (VA).

Gould said travel advisors are usually one of two people: They either love the sales aspect, or they love the booking process and researching destinations.

“It’s really hard finding one person who loves doing both sides of that job,” Gould said. “Like Byrd alluded to, having a VA or somebody else that you can work with for that definitely helps fill in the gaps that you’re missing in that regard.”

Listen to the full episode of the podcast for more advice from Bergeron and Gould, including practical techniques and insights.

It’s the first in a two-part series on sales strategies with Bergeron and Gould. The next episode will be live on Monday, July 10. 

A major European country has a new travel alert.

The United States Department of State Bureau of Consular Affairs has issued a Level 1 Travel Advisory for the country of Switzerland. The agency did not provide any immediate cause on why the travel advisory was published on May 20, but it says to “exercise normal precautions in Switzerland.”

There have been recent protests and demonstrations during the recent Eurovision Song Contest, according to a report from French news outlet France 24 . However, it is not confirmed that these protests prompted the United States to publish the travel advisory. 

The agency does; however, link to a detailed security report, which spotlights recent protests and a medium crime threat in the city of Geneva.

For reference, the Level 1 advisory, “exercise normal precautions” simply encourages visitors to be vigilant, but doesn’t necessarily mean that a traveler should alter their plans. The advisory is the lowest on a tier of four. Level 2 is ‘exercise increased caution’, Level 3 is ‘reconsider travel’, and Level 4 is ‘do not travel’. 

Switzerland was recently ranked as the fifth safest country in the world , and even ranked higher than Japan and Denmark, in a study published by Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection. 

The U.S. agency also provides several helpful tips for travelers visiting Switzerland, including signing up for the free Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) which can provide up-to-date and critical information for visitors in a foreign country. The agency also encourages travelers to purchase travel insurance before overseas trips. 

“Use your best judgement to avoid unsafe situations,” the State Department shares in its best practices for traveler safety. “Think ahead and come up with a safety plan to deal with unsafe situations, in the event you end up in one. Consider bringing personal safety whistles/alarms and taking self-defense courses before you travel.”

The travel advisory comes as the other government agencies have also issued alerts for travelers ahead of the summer travel season. For example, the Center for Disease Control issued an alert for an outbreak of dengue fever in Brazil, Fiji, Mexico, and other countries.

Starlux Airlines Airbus A350-941 B-58502 (msn 557) NRT (Michael B. Ing). Image: 962142.

PHOENIX – Mayor Kate Gallego today announced that STARLUX Airlines intends to begin new nonstop flights between Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and Taipei’s Taoyuan Airport.

The service, pending final government approvals, would begin early next year, with three to four flights a week.

This is the first nonstop air service to Asia for Phoenix and Arizona. Gallego shared the news in her annual State of the City Address. This announcement comes on the heels of the United States largest foreign direct investment ever with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s plans to invest $165 billion into its Phoenix facilities.

“Phoenix’s first non-stop flight to Asia reflects the incredible strides we’ve made with our local economy, and our emergence as an international city,” Gallego said. “TSMC’s historic investment in Phoenix has brought thousands of high wage jobs and boosted our reputation as a semiconductor hub, and now it’s helping increase air service demand.”

STARLUX Airlines was founded by legendary visionary Captain Kuo-Wei (K.W.) Chang who was the former chairman of EVA Air. In 2018, he launched STARLUX Airlines, his ultimate vision of a five-star airline rivaling the best in the world. With handpicked aircraft and a relentless focus on luxury, STARLUX took off in 2020 and has been redefining premium air travel ever since.

“I knew from the moment I set foot in Phoenix that STARLUX should make the investment to fly here. Not only is the growth of business between Taipei and Phoenix staggering, it’s a perfect match for our level of service. We are proud and honored to be the first carrier to provide nonstop Asia service for the Phoenix community,” Chairman K.W. Chang said.

Phoenix international flights add more than $3 billion to the local economy each year per the Airport’s most recent economic impact study. This service alone is estimated to have a $100 million plus economic impact each year.

“I am thrilled that STARLUX Airlines has chosen Phoenix Sky Harbor as its newest destination,” Aviation Director Chad Makovsky said. “This significant win for Phoenix and our entire region is a testament to the vision and dedication of Mayor Gallego and our City Council as they support the continued growth and modernization of our airport to serve as a top-tier international gateway.”

Service will initially begin with an A350-900 aircraft that has 306 seats. Tickets will go on sale once government approval is formalized